At the end of Q1 2025, Poland reached 21.8 GW of installed PV capacity, of which 59% was microgeneration units and 41% was PV farms and small systems. The market has undergone a significant transformation – large PV farms above 1 MW have taken over the dominant role, accounting for half of new capacity. Photovoltaics accounted for 64% of Poland's RES capacity, and its share of RES power generation rose to 31.5%.
Poland remains at the forefront of the EU in terms of PV capacity increase, ranking 5th in 2024 with an increase of 3.7 GW. Globally, it ranked 11th. Despite a decline in momentum in 2023-2024, Poland's PV sector is growing at a rate similar to mature markets such as Germany and Spain. Industry forecasts indicate that up to 38 GW of PV capacity could be reached as early as 2028, government forecasts (the National Energy and Climate Plan) indicate that 38 GW of system capacity could be reached in 2035. Poland also stands out for its high rate of installed PV capacity per capita at the end of 2024 – better than in the US or China.
In 2024, 141,500 new microgeneration units with a capacity of 1.43 GW were connected to the grid. The "My Electricity" program supported 53,500 prosument PV installation, including 9746 energy storage systems and 3957 heat storage facilities. The average wattage of microgeneration units increased to 10.3 kW. The prosumer net-metering billing system still dominates, but net-billing is growing in importance in the total number of prosumers – 1.53 mil. (the total capacity of microgeneration units is 12.6 GW). It was noted that the new solutions being promoted (e.g., the collective and virtual prosumer, energy clusters and cooperatives) do not work in this segment and there is a lack of market-oriented solutions.
PV farms above 1 MW have become a major driver of PV growth, with 2.4 GW of large farms arriving in 2024. New RtB and greenfield projects are developing rapidly, although the number of building permits is falling. RES auctions in the 2024 auction basket dedicated to PV and wind farms have contracted 16 TWh of energy from weather-dependent sources in 15-year contracts, 99% of which is expected to come from PV. There is a resurgence of interest in the auction system, which offers competitive revenue parameters vis-à-vis the sale of PV power in the market or under PPAs loaded with PV profile costs. The main barriers to farm development are problems with grid connections and curtailments.
Wind-solar hybrids with energy storage offer greater stability and efficiency than PV farms. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are becoming crucial for system balancing and price arbitrage. 4.3 GW of BESS capacity has been contracted in capacity market auctions through 2029. The share of BESS in hybrids with PV farms is still low. Alternative means of connection, such as cable pooling and direct lines, are gaining ground, although they require legislative changes.
The cost of PV systems decreases as the capacity of the system increases – in 2024, microgeneration units cost an average of 4069 PLN/kW, while PV farms cost about 2425 PLN/kW. Bifacial modules dominate, with the large 500 Wp ones being the most common choice. Hybrid inverters and energy storage are gaining popularity. Companies with an ambition for expansion point to risks associated with a lack of available connection capacity, low and negative energy prices, non-market generation constraints and regulatory ambiguity.
The most serious problem, after the limitations on the operation of PV sources perceived earlier, is becoming low energy prices for the PV generation profile. Notably, this phenomenon was not observed until 2024, with the trend of declining average energy prices becoming established (after the 2022 energy crisis) along with the rapid growth of PV capacity in 2021-2023 and the oversupply of energy at PV generation peaks.
In a situation of growing surpluses and low PV energy prices, the solution with the greatest potential becomes the rapid green electrification of heating and industry, as the cheapest way to manage surplus energy from PV sources and the most favorable solution for lowering heat prices and decarbonizing the heating industry. Electric boilers coupled with daily and seasonal heat storage systems (PTES, BTES) can take over the summer surplus electricity from PV and use it as heat during periods outside of PV generation, including the winter heating season.
Poland and the EU are aiming to increase the share of RES and electrify the entire economy, which is expected to bring lower heat prices, improved competitiveness and greater energy independence. The EU is supporting the recovery of the PV industry through the NZIA regulation, which introduces non-price criteria in auctions and promotes the production of PV components in Europe.
The full report “Photovoltaic market in Poland 2025“ is available: https://sklepieo.pl/photovoltaic-market-in-poland-2025.html. Any specific request or comments could be addressed biuro@ieo.pl
