Polish photovoltaics reached an installed capacity of 17.08 GW at the end of 2023, and 17.73 GW at the end of the first quarter of 2024. Compared to 2022, the growth of new capacity in absolute terms was similar at around 4.6 GW, but the structure of the market has changed markedly. The proportions of installed microgeneration installations (up to 50 kW), small installations (above 50 kW) and installations above 1 MW identified as "farms" have changed. Turnover and revenues of companies at different stages of the supply chain have also changed.
Market growth in 2023 was largely based on prosumer microgeneration installations (43% of new capacity growth), accounting for 66.3% of total installed PV capacity. Compared to 2022, however, there is a slowdown in growth in this group. The analysis of the first quarter of 2024 also indicates that – with high probability – we can expect a further deceleration or stabilization of the growth of microgeneration installations in 2024. The reasons are the continuing "freeze" on energy prices for individual consumers, the continuing high level of inflation and the resulting higher cost of bank loans and the weakening economic position of the middle class. This results in small investors holding back or prosumers postponing purchase decisions.
However, the slowdown in this group was offset by an increase in installed capacity in small installations and farms above 1 MW, amounting to respectively: 24.3% and 9.4%. It was a record year for this group of investors, both in terms of the number of installations commissioned and the total capacity of the equipment – 1,417 small installations (from 50 kW to 1 MW) with a total capacity of 1.1 GW and 80 farms above 1 MW with a total capacity of 0.77 GW were connected. Photovoltaics thus continues to be the clear leader among all other RES in our country in terms of growth rate and installed capacity. Today, PV capacity accounts for about 60% of installed capacity in the entire renewable energy sources (RES) sector. Compared to other European Union countries, Poland ranked fourth in terms of PV capacity growth in 2023 and moved up to sixth place in terms of cumulative installed capacity.
The year 2023 and the beginning of 2024 also brought significant changes in the regulatory environment to further support the development of photovoltaics and other RES in Poland and the European Union. Among the most important national legislation is the amendment to the Energy Law, adopted in July 2023. The law belatedly implemented the provisions of previous 2019 directives, including the Directive on common rules for the internal market in energy regulating, among other things, energy storage, and partially implements the previous Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), whose transposition time expired in June 2021. It wasn't until August 2023 that the Renewable Energy Act was also amended, which also partially implements the provisions of RED II.
Meanwhile, in October 2023, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union had already adopted a new directive, RED III, with more ambitious targets for increasing the share of energy from RES in overall EU energy consumption by 2030. While RED II aimed to increase the share to at least 32%, RED III sets a target of 42.5% with the goal of reaching 45%. Member countries have 18 months to transpose the provisions of this directive into their legal orders.
The Net-Zero Industry Act, approved by the European Parliament in April 2024, is also among the new legislation that will be relevant to the industry. The regulation calls for the EU's production capacity for strategic carbon-neutral technologies, including solar PV, to reach at least 40% of annual needs by 2030. The Net-Zero Industry Act includes specific measures such as expedited permitting and facilitating market access through non-price criteria preferring local production of PV equipment, components and services in public procurement, renewable energy auctions and other support schemes.
A new phenomenon in Poland is the growing problem of so-called curtailment in 2023-2024 – that is, temporary restrictions on the operation of grid-connected PV farms, especially during generation peaks. Indeed, this non-market form of energy supply curve management is increasingly being resorted to by the Transmission System Operator.
This phenomenon mainly affects non-micro PV installations (those are curtailed by over-voltage automation) and occurs during periods of highest productivity, especially around noon, initially on holidays as a result of a deep drop in energy demand, and now also on weekdays.
Mitigating this problem requires new strategic actions and the development of innovative solutions. With a relatively saturated market, solutions that provide a more staggered energy production profile throughout the day will become important, including, for example, PV systems with east-west exposure, direct use of excess energy generated, and postponement of energy use through storage in short-term electricity storage ("load shifting" by 2-4 hours from midday to afternoon) and heat storage (daily and seasonal).
Solving the problems of the lack of PV connections to the grid according to the "PV hosting capacity" model (opening up the power system to a new source of energy) and limiting the scale of taking PV generation off the grid, speeding up (shortening) administrative procedures for investors, and promoting innovative solutions and reindustrializing the European PV industry will be key challenges facing the PV industry in the near future. All of these challenges are important, and together they also generally pose a challenge to the government administration, which sets the direction of energy and industry development, and to the PV industry, which has grown and become immune to various types of disruption, but is still subject to shocks.
In addition to the traditional market analysis of technologies, suppliers, installers, operators, and analysis of regulations and programs, the report "Photovoltaic Market in Poland 2024" includes new chapters devoted to the possible scale and effects of energy curtailment (this phenomenon intensified in 2024), problems of PV industry development (the supply-demand imbalance as a result of years of market disruption became apparent in early 2023), opportunities for the industry and agriculture offered by agrivoltaics, and a systemic approach to PV energy storage, particularly in the form of storage of heat (sector coupling) and electricity.
The report identifies problems, but also indicates directions for action in the near term of 2025 in such a way that the 2030 goals can be met, along with the corresponding added value for the Polish PV industry and the entire domestic supply chain.
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